Commodities Update (13th April)

Well, the war is still being fought, but I don’t think it’s quite going to someone’s plan!

As I write this (13/04) the pound has fallen another two cents against the dollar and fallen about a cent and a half against the euro, over the last month.

Oil has come down since my last report, around $17/barrel, with today’s price currently $106/barrel, with a slight rise today.  This drop does not currently seem to be reflected in forecourt prices, and for farm deliveries only one company is still offering a price before delivery, the others are still price on the day of delivery.

While current gas prices have dropped in the last months from 600p/therm to approximately 215p/therm the prices moving forward are creeping up from around 200p/therm to 250p/therm next winter and from 150p/therm next summer to 190p/therm, so the overall energy trend is continuing upwards.

Something I don’t usually mention, but the FTSE is up 500 points in the last month, so despite everything the stock markets are continuing to grow.

In the last month the GDT results have actually fallen by 0.9% & 1.0%, despite this I now keep hearing a figure of 50p/litre for milk moving forward, now that most are on or near 40p/litre, especially since Arla opened their books! I guess 50p is the new 40p!

The public keep seeing articles in the general press saying dairy/food is getting tighter in supply and they will need to pay more for their food, but will they with other increases to their cost of living?  Reports today are showing inflation is up 7% for March, the highest increase for 30 years, with salaries not rising to match this increase.

Milk Powder
Milk powder prices have continued to rise over the last month, as expected with SMP prices, and other raw materials, continuing to rise.

Feed prices are still volatile, but still growing, with wheat now close to £300/t at harvest and barley £290/t; add approximately £30/t for current prices.  Rape has also climbed and now looking around £340/t for harvest, and £420/t close up to harvest, soya hasn’t changed in the short term but eased about £35/t for next winter due to better-than-expected USDA reports earlier in the month.

Earlier this month fertiliser prices took an unexpected downturn.  On the day new Nitram prices where announced gas prices actually went up, but the reason given for the drop was some urea was suddenly being offered on the east coast which made Nitram look expensive, so its price was dropped and within a day or two everything else followed.

I’m still unaware of anyone offering urea here in the South West, and its also worth noting that the imported AN supplier is no longer offering terms on their product.  It is full loads only down to here, and payment in full the month following delivery.

We can still offer partial loads, artic only, for Nitram, and three-month terms if this will help your cashflow.

Current market feeling is there may not be a “new” season price this coming year, just a continuation, or at the most a small reduction.

Phosphate prices continue to firm, with replacement prices about £100/t higher than current market values of approximately £1100/t for DAP.  This is due to 20 million tons of product unavailable on the market due to China restricting exports and the sanctions on Belarus/Russia.

This is also seeing an increase in phosphorous pricing in feed minerals etc.

If you’d like to discuss your milk powder, feed & fertiliser requirements, then please call FAR registered Dairy Nutritionist & CowSignals® Master Andrew Jones on 07717 44288 or email