Commodities Update (09/12)

During the past month the pound has fluctuated against the dollar, but overall it has gained, closing at 1GBP= $1.224.  Again, against the Euro, the pound has fluctuated, however has made gains over the past month to 1GBP = 1.159 EUR.

The GDT has remained stable with just a small gain of +0.6%. (Butter Milk Powder +4.7%, Cheddar +1.8%, Skim Milk Powder +1.7%, Butter -1.9%).

Brent Crude has seen significant falls to $76.49/barrel, the lowest since the start of the war in Ukraine. 

Milk Powder
The milk powder price has stabilised over the past couple of months, with Trouw’s two premium milk powders dropping by £100/tonne in December.

Fertiliser
We are seeing UK & European gas prices starting to rise again as the temperatures begin to fall. The gas futures are portraying higher levels for Q1 of 2023 and this will inevitably increase the cost of production of nitrogen products. There are no domestic terms for Nitram AN 34.5 from CF as they catch up on delivering their outstanding order book. European producers of AN who started production in October are struggling to produce enough for their own domestic market with significantly reduced exports expected. This will further limit the amount of AN products available in the UK for the spring.

Urea prices have softened recently, partly due to the recent strengthening of the pound, and is still at a significant discount to ammonium nitrate on the cost of a unit of nitrogen. There are expectations that prices could pick up in the new year as demand increases.

Both Phosphates and Potash prices have softened in the last month to a level where we are seeing an increase in order activity. It is being indicated that forward prices of both P & K are expected to increase.

Feed 
Wheat - UK prices have fallen just over £10/t week on week as the bearish global sentiment and weak domestic demand, mainly due to the bird-flu epidemic, continue to pressure futures and ex-farm prices.

Feed Barley - Consumers in the UK market remain inactive with most having cover ito the New Year.   Prices continue to mirror the downward trend of wheat with the differential holding between £4 and £17 per tonne.

Protein - Prices have risen again in the early part of December after dropping back in late November.  The rise is driven partly by good export levels out of the US and China coming back into the market for Soya.  The differential between Soya and Oilseeds has widened this week with Soya sitting £149/t above Oilseed Rape, compared to £79/t at the start of the week.

Seed
If you have yet to secure maize seed for 2023, I would advise booking seed before Christmas.  Due to a limited supply of maize seed this year, a number of our popular varieties have already sold out.  When selecting seed, it is important that you choose the right variety for your soil type and that it is listed on the MGA recommended seed list.  We also have our maize starter fertiliser MaxiMaize available.

Clover seed, in particular red clover, is going to be in short supply next spring, if you are thinking about reseeding in the spring and wanting to add clover to your mix, make sure you secure your seed sooner rather than later.

For up to date prices please contact Louise on 07943 684215 or e-mail louise@dblbuyinggroup.co.uk