Commodities Report (12/07)

The pound continues to hold its own against the Euro, reaching highs yesterday of 1GBP=1.17584EUR. Against the Dollar, the pound has strengthened further reaching highs of 1GBP=1.29639USD this is the highest level seen since May 2022.

Brent Crude has been volatile over the past month, peaking at $79.64/barrel today.

The GDT has overall witnessed falls across all commodities during the past month.

Milk Powder
We had seen a mixed bag as far as milk powder pricing is concerned for July, some remaining stable, with others increasing and some falling this month, this has depended greatly on the quality of ingredients, with the higher quality skim powders witnessing increases of £100/tonne.  It is yet to be known which direction the pricing will be heading for August.    

Fertiliser
The fertiliser market has been very quiet of late, with very little activity in the market, however we have seen upward movement in the Granular Urea market this week.

• Granular urea is approximately @$70/t higher than the average level for June 2023. Still awaiting a further 1MT tender for India, which should keep the levels firm/firmer for the short-term.
• CF came out with spot terms again and offering Jan/Feb deliveries as production is sold out to this point. European Ammonium Nitrate is in low supply, with continuing gas volatility causing sales/production problems for these markets.
• At present the forward gas for the Winter months will make it uneconomical again for European producers to compete against the granular urea prices. Consequently, this will put a tight squeeze on Nitrates for both European/UK over the winter months.
• For PKs, after months of falling prices, we are now seeing stability in these markets.
• We are now able to offer a new product; Fertiberia DS + 24N + 14SO3, which has shown to deliver nitrogen use efficiency at 22% higher than conventional fertiliser.

Feed 
As has been well reported, US weather and its impact on maize and soyabean conditions remain a key driver in global grain and oilseed markets.  Some US maize producing states have been experiencing extreme drought conditions.  Much like maize, the US soyabean crop has also suffered with drought conditions.  This has in recent weeks driven prices up.  Markets will be watching the US weather.

The Black-Sea Grain Initiative is set to expire next Monday, 17^th July, and multiple Russian officials have highlighted the unlikelihood of a renewal. Renewal this time is crucial as we enter Ukraine’s main export window.

ADHB Market commentary (11/07/23)

• UK feed wheat futures (Nov-23) closed at £193.75/t yesterday, unchanged from Friday’s close. The Nov-24 contract gained £0.25/t over the session, closing at £196.85/t.
• While grain markets stabilised yesterday, uncertainty over the future of the Black Sea export initiative continues. Moscow still says it sees no grounds to extend it beyond 17 July (Refinitiv).
• Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-23) gained €11.00/t yesterday, ending the session at €459.25/t. The Nov-24 contract closed at €459.75/t, up €10.25/t from the previous session.
• Rapeseed prices climbed along with the wider vegetable oil complex on the back of a jump in Malaysian palm oil futures due to smaller than expected stocks, and a surge in July exports. 

If you have yet to get cover for winter straights and blends, it may be worth looking at prices and monitoring the direction they are heading, as we are presently in a volatile market.

If you would like prices for Fuel, Feed, Fertiliser or Milk Replacer please call Louise on 07943 684215
or e-mail louise@dblbuying.co.uk